Thursday, March 31, 2011

March madness was here folks!! Cash flow is the name, appreciation is the game.

Payam Raouf
President
Arizona Property Management and Investments
888-777-6664 ext 111

March madness was here folks. It felt like 2004 and 2005 again. Investors were back with a vengeance buying up the entire valley IN CASH! Where did all that money suddenly come from?

Multiple offers were as common as sleeping in a sleeping bag behind a builder’s sales office to get the first releases 7 years ago but this time investors had cash and plenty of that too.

I don’t want to spoil it for my own clients by telling everyone out there what we are buying, as an investor told me last week in a phone conversation, “I read what is going to happen in you blog 9 months ago and it is happening now”. That maybe a little exaggeration, I wish I had such a crystal ball but the truth is we are in the tranches on the front line day in, day out; we have a good idea where the market is headed. Going through all the ups and downs in the past few years and have been involved in over 1000 transactions helps though.

Here we go, I cannot hold it. Let’s spread the wealth! 70% of the buying in Arizona is done by foreign investors!!! They are buying everything at trustee sales, bank owned, short sales and whatever makes some sense! These are very savvy investors. Conservative to some point but are willing to look at opportunities for longer term as well. Cash flow is the name, appreciation is the game.

I see more investors are moving in towards Peoria, Happy Valley, Arrow Head, and west wing Mountain taking all the good stuff betting against each other, taking the market up 5% to 10%!

Surprise, some parts of Glendale, Avondale are already played out. El Mirage, Buckeye, Tolesson, not getting much play at all. Laveen and Goodyear are getting back on the map. Litchfield park is still getting some actions.

Gilbert is on, Chandler on the side line, Mesa and Tempe, ummm. May not be too late to get into Maricopa, there may be still some deals out there, you have got to watch out where you buy out there. Queen Creek, San Tan Valley, Gold Canyon not even a prayer, dead as a door nail, don’t get stucked down there. You will be there a while.

We feel very confident that this frenzy will continue for a good while and as the result prices will continue to go up in some areas. We bought a property 14 months ago for one of our investors in Peoria for 220K and I just looked it up, it sells for 310K in today's market!! We were encouraging investors to buy there 14 months ago!

We also are expecting to see some good deals in Scottsdale area in the future, give it another six to eight months, November, December, before entering that market.

For right now folks, stick with the 3 real estate basics, Location, Location, Location.

It would not be fair to our clients to pin point exactly what pockets we are buying at this time however if you are seriously considering utilizing our expertise, please give me a call directly at 888-777-6664 ext 111. I have several associates out there in the field every day previewing properties for our steady investors. We can put you on our nightly recommended property list as well, if you would like us help you buy investment properties (our nitch) as well.

If you are currently in escrow and would like to take advantage of our “A’ Rating property management services, call Rhonda Urtuzuastegui, my Portfolio Manager at ext 109. We have a full staff to attend to your business including property prep, reconditioning and rehab services.

Just click on yahoo investment blog and saw this,"Russian billionaire buys $100M Silicon Valley home". He should have called us. We could have saved him some money. LOL

Friday, March 25, 2011

Arizona Rental/Investment Market Update as of 3/25/2011

Payam Raouf
President/Associate Broker
Arizona property Management and Investments

Arizona Rental/Investment Market Update as of 3/25/2011

Total Homes for sale on MLS: 38185 Active, AWC-Contingent Offers, AWC-Existing Option to Purchase, AWC-Seller Written Instructions

14582
pre approved short sale, pre-Foreclosure or short sale approval required in Active, AWC-Contingent Offers, AWC-Existing Option to Purchase, AWC-Seller Written Instructions

5239 Active foreclosed properties for sale ( less than 10% make sense to invest in )

Only 2135 unfurnished rental homes with 3 bed rooms or more Valley Wide, i.e. the entire Phoenix Metropolitan Area!

If this does not call for a panic, what does? There are 4 applicants per house as we speak. Rents have gone up 25% since 2009, most of it just in the last 6 months! Should this trend continue once these homes are foreclosed on, where should renters set their tenants up?

Cash buyers, investors have flooded the market. There are 2 to 3 offers on decent properties in good locations. Prices as the result are going up. Cash offers are coming in at 5% above asking prices. We have never received so many calls from cash buyers. When ask why, everyone almost says the same thing, hedging against dollar devaluation and cash flow and boy are they getting it. We used to calculate 1% of purchase price as a gauge for rent, giving investors 6 to 7 percent net return. Now a day, with the rents going up through the roof, that is moving up to 8 to 9 percent.

I just read in Arizona Republic yesterday, there are so many investors wanting to buy homes here that HUD is not accepting investors in the upcoming Auction.

Of course, bear in mind that is not on everything you buy out here. You have got to know, what and where to buy and what it rent for. That’s what we do. If you need additional information give us a call. 888-777-6664 ext 111. Payam Raouf

Saturday, March 19, 2011

Arizona legislation to help homeowners under water.

Catherine Reagor
Arizona Republic
March 16 2011

Arizona legislation to help homeowners under water

Some Arizona homeowners under water on their mortgages might be able to reduce their interest rates and monthly payments if a proposed state program becomes law.

The "home certificate" program laid out in a new bill is intended to help homeowners lower their mortgage payments even if they can't refinance their mortgages through a traditional bank.

The proposal is both unprecedented and controversial. Essentially, it would create a separate market for mortgage financing from private investors, bypassing banks. Investors could benefit by earning interest paid by reliable borrowers, while homeowners could benefit from lower monthly payments and lower interest rates than they currently have.

Although the plan's backer says it could help many homeowners, critics say lenders will be reluctant to agree to the system.

Roadblocks
The program, which is intended to be short-term, might also put borrowers at risk and won't work if home values don't rebound enough for borrowers to refinance later, letting investors get back the money they put in.

Since the crash in home values, many Valley residents now owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. In that situation, they typically can't qualify to refinance. Their homes aren't worth enough for lenders to issue them a new mortgage at a lower interest rate.

That situation leaves homeowners, even those with good credit who can make their payments, unable to take advantage of lower interest rates.

Those are the homeowners the bill aims to help.

The legislation, backed by Scottsdale Republican Sen. Michelle Reagan, has passed the Senate and has been assigned to be heard in the House Commerce Committee, but that hearing is not yet scheduled.

Reagan said she believes the bill can help responsible homeowners unable to refinance to current low interest rates and set up a system for investors to make money.

"It's a private program that is based on free-market principles," Reagan said.

How it works
The system would work this way:

- Arizona homeowners would qualify if they were current on their mortgage payments but owed more than their houses were worth.

- Qualifying homeowners would enter a marketplace managed by a state agency that has not yet been designated. They would publicly post the monthly payment they were willing to make - typically a payment lower than their current bill and equivalent to their current mortgage but with an interest rate of 2 to 5 percent.

- Investors would evaluate those mortgage requests and then bid on the loans they wanted to buy.

- When investors and borrowers were matched up, the investors would pay off the homeowners' old loans. Homeowners then could make payments, at a lower interest rate, to the investors. Investors would make 2 to 5 percent interest, which Reagan noted is more than they can currently earn by saving cash in a bank.

- Borrowers would have to sign away their "anti-deficiency" rights. Laws in Arizona say banks in most cases cannot pursue homeowners to recoup any losses after foreclosing on a home. Waiving anti-deficiency rights is meant to reassure investors that borrowers wouldn't abandon their homes without repaying.

- Investors would receive a home certificate giving them lender rights to the house as collateral for the short-term loan. Each month, 3 percent of a homeowner's payment would go into an insurance fund that would help cover potential losses for investors. The fund would be managed by a government agency.

The system would make the deals temporary. After five to 10 years, homeowners would have to pay back investors' principal. The bill anticipates that, by then, home values will have rebounded, allowing borrowers to refinance through a traditional home lender.

Problems
The idea is stirring controversy. The bill is difficult to understand; the plan has never been tried before and the system would require changes to current Arizona real-estate laws and property records.

"The legislation sounds similar to how people bid on tax liens in Arizona, but the bill is very vague and hard to figure out," said Jay Butler, director of realty studies at Arizona State University. "Also, who says lenders are going to agree to it?"

That issue is key to the program. Once a private investor agrees to take over a mortgage, the original lender has to agree to the deal.

Typically, a homeowner is allowed to pay off the balance of a loan at any time. But, in this case, the homeowner is not the one paying off the loan. A third-party investor provides the cash and then that investor, not the bank, profits off the borrower's payments.

In essence, the banks would have to agree to give up their future profits to OK the deals.

Other questions remain: Would enough investors be willing to participate in the program, given that the homes are worth less than the value of the loans? Would homeowners who have signed over their anti-deficiency rights but who later lose their jobs and their homes end up also being sued by investors?

"The program has noble intentions," said Marc McCain, a Phoenix real-estate attorney, "but without widespread lender . . . support and participation, it is not likely to provide much practical benefit."

Reagan is addressing the lender issue with plans to add an amendment calling for "deemed foreclosures" in Arizona.

The move appears to be intended to force banks to give up the mortgages. But specifics on how it would work are not yet clear.

Reagan said it would help ensure that lenders must sell mortgages to investors.

"Any term with foreclosure is scary to homeowners, but deemed foreclosures will not hurt their credit," Reagan said.

Prospects
Last week, Reagan met with Gov. Jan Brewer's office to discuss the legislation and what agency could handle the insurance fund.

Ira Hecht, a New York attorney and accountant who crafted the idea behind the bill, participated in one of the meetings via conference call.

Reagan said Hecht approached her about launching the program in Arizona because many homeowners in the state are still making their payments despite a huge drop in home values.

Reagan is proposing to run the insurance part of the program through the Arizona Housing Authority, which is part of the state's Housing Department.

Mike Trailor, director of the Housing Department, said his agency is asking questions about the proposed program. The finance division of the Housing Department can issue bonds and provide other financial instruments potentially needed for the program.

Rep. Debbie McCune Davis, D-Phoenix, said legislation to help homeowners avoid foreclosures, instead of refinancing a loan they can afford, should be a bigger concern for the Legislature.

Arizona banking lobbyist Wendy Briggs said the banking industry is "neutral" on the legislation.

"This is a completely voluntary program for homeowners and investors," Reagan said. "If people don't like the terms, they don't have to participate. But, for so many of us underwater on our mortgages, it's our only option to take advantage of the current low interest rates."

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

There is a crisis brewing in the rental market in Phoenix Metro.

Payam Raouf
President
Arizona property Management and Investments
888-777-6664 ext 111
info@azezrentals.com

There is a crisis brewing in the rental market in Phoenix Metro. There seems to be 4 applicants for every rental home out there on mls. Our phones are ringing off the hooks like never before. It prompted me to check the inventory on mls and there you go, as of today March 8th 2011, there are 18,644 active, active with contingency and pending short sale and pre-foreclosure homes on mls and only 2547 single family rental home listings with three bed rooms or more.

Many home owners in the process of short sale or foreclosure are starting to look for a rental property already. They don't care what the bank wants to do with their home any more because, a) they want to move on with their lives, b) they want to get what they want and don't want to settle for ANY rental home, c) They can not afford any higher rent.

Many of them have pets. Most owners of rental homes do not accept large dogs and specially cats. A prospective rental applicant who has three pit bulls told me yesterday, he can give two away and is looking for a shelter to accept the third. No wonder I see so many ads from animal shelters lately!

Banks are refusing to foreclose on these properties. We’ve entered a new era in global financial markets where the U.S. is intentionally devaluing the dollar. With that in mind it is disadvantageous for financial institutions to foreclose on these properties anytime soon. They will benefit from riding it out in several ways, a) they don't have to write it off their books right now upsetting their shareholders, b) they don't have to pay the taxes and HOA fees and insurance, c) they have home keepers (current owners) taking care of their homes instead of leaving it empty - most insurance companies will not insure an unoccupied property - d) make a ton of money when the dollar is devaluated over the years, estimated time maybe within 5 years, yet holding the owners feet to the fire to pay up the unpaid mortgages in addition to the balance of the loan in case the dollar devaluates so far as to produce value in excess of the loan amount.

I saw on the news "3 on your side" last night, this home owner begging the bank for foreclose on hers. She moved out a year ago and the bank still has not foreclose on her house. In this case, they may go ahead and do it soon because it is too costly -vandalism - for it to sit empty.

The shortness in the rental market is already driving the rents up. Specially homes in the $1500 to $2000. We see a lot affluent people wanting to rent now. $3000 rentals move even faster!!!!

There is less than 5782 foreclosures in the market, 3/4 of them don't meet today's savvy investors criteria to buy. Fannie Mae does not sell to investors for the first 15 days, so all the good homes are gone before they get a chance to buy. 2/3 of the short sales are not closing like they used to. Banks would rather foreclose on them because they make more money in the process and they are not even doing that because they don't have the reserve to cover their losses.

It is going to get really ugly soon with the summer around the corner and more families wanting to move. Banks need to come up with a solution soon. Maybe they can lease these homes back to the owners with a 5 or 10 year option to buy - doubt they will or can. On the other hand, private investors can get in on this and really made some serious dough if they are smart. They are many ways to do it. State of Arizona is working with some private investors to help some upside down homeowners to stay put and in the process both the state and private investors reaping the benefits.

There is another way to get on this and that is through a) buying real estate for your own individual portfolio or if you don't have enough to buy the right product, put your money into a pool with others (make sure you get on the deed), b)if you don't want to deal with managing your portfolio yourself, do your due diligence and buy shares in a holding that invests in such ventures to get a reasonable dividend ( 6 to 7 percent ) in short run and hedge your money against hyperinflation as the result of dollar devaluation in the long run.

I have heard it all, buy gold, silver, copper,other commodities etc. OK, gold reaches $5000 an ounce, who is going to NEED it to buy it at that? Real estate on the other hand, a tangible asset is NEEDED AT ALL TIMES, people need roof over their heads and there you go. If you have any common sense, you will pile up on your real estate portfolio in Arizona and Nevada right now --- Even though, prices are going up on good inventory in desirable areas ( location, location, location)and there is a shortage due to bank keeping them for themselves, you can still steal some at 30 to 40 percent below builders original cost --- and retire on it and leave some to your kids.

If you are an investor wanting to buy rental investment properties in Phoenix Metro Area, we do it all, please give me, Payam Raouf a call at 888-777-6664 ext 111 or info@azezrentals.com. Time is of the Essence. We are on top of the market and can give you the kind of input needed to fill up your pockets with a lots of treasures.

Remember, The Richest Man in Babylon, the book by George Samuel Clason which says, ...Seek wise counsel....Let their wisdom protect thy treasure from unsafe investments.