Phoenix Metro Housing Forecast in 2020

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Payam H. Raouf, Designated Broker

Phoenix Metro Housing Forecast 2020

The FHA floor will increase from $314,827 to $331,760 for single-family home loans. The increase includes all counties under HBACA jurisdiction, Maricopa County, Pinal County, & Yavapai County. The FHA national low-cost area mortgage limit of $331,760 is set at 65% of the national conforming limit of $510,400.

DOES THAT MEAN PRICES ARE GOING UP 6.5% IN 2020?

NOT REALLY, WE ALREADY HAVE HAD HALF OF THAT PRICED IN LAST YEAR IN 2019. SO, I WOULD EXPECT ABOUT 3% MORE THIS YEAR.

WE ARE GOING TO WITNESS SOME MORE CREATIVE LOANS COMING TO THE MARKET LIKE IN THE 2004/5/6 AND THAT COULD BE A BIT OF CONCERN.

BUT AS LONG AS THE WATERS REMAIN CALM INTERNATIONALLY AND AT HOME, - !!!! - IT IS TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE WINTER AND DO WHAT THE ANTS OF MESSOR DO!

While sellers may be able to ask more for their homes, they’re likely to get fewer offers in total due to more buyers being priced out of the market.

How much higher can rents go in Phoenix Metro in 2020 ?

In the last 10 years rents have gone up 60% in Phoenix Metro Area and half of that has been since 2012.

Let's put that into perspective: if the rent for a 4 bed room 2 bath approximately 2400 sq ft house built in 2000 or newer with no pool in Surprise AZ was around $1200 in 2012, it is around $1600 today. If this house was worth $200,000 in 2012, it is now worth about $270,000. With a cap rate of about 7%, $200,000 X 7% = $1200 and  270,000 X 7% = $1600. 

How much has income growth been since 2012 in Phoenix Metro ?

Unemployment has gone down from 10% in 2012 to slightly below 5% and it is estimated to go even lower in the next 12 months. Jobs are in abundance and growth is compensated for the huge migration to Arizona, approximately 272,000 in 2018 and a bit more in 2019 and expected to even be more in 2020.

Households in Arizona have a median annual income of $56,581, which is less than the median annual income of $60,336 across the entire United States. 

Average cost of utilities (electric, gas, water, sewer, trash, and cable) is about $600 a month. $1600 rent + $600 utilities = $2200 X 12 months = $26000 which is almost 50% of the Annual Household Gross Income.   With 3% increase in income per year, we can estimate the income grow to about $61,000.

We estimate an increase of 3% increase in rent in 2020. Cost of living is still kind of low in Arizona comparing to neighboring states and major metropolitan areas. So the same house at 3% price and rent increase for the next 3 years will be around $300,000 and the rent will be about $1750. 

Your Arizona Market Report, SURPRISE ARIZONA

Review the below table for a real estate investment analysis over a five year period. 

DISCLAIMER: This is an estimated projection and used as an example for the purpose of this article. Readers are advised to conduct their own due diligence before making any investments. Market projections are subject to change. 

ACQUISITION DATA LOAN DATA DEPRECIATION Price 270,000 Interest % 4.50% Land 15% Dn. Pymt. 54,000 No. Yrs. 30 Improvement 85% Loan Amt. 216,000 Mo. P & I 1,094 No. Yrs. 27.5 Buy Costs 2,700 Yr. P & I 13,133 Yr. Depr. 8,553 Cap Impr. 3,000 ANNUAL OPERATING INCOME Yr.1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Increase in income 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Expected Gross Income 19,200 19,776 20,369 20,980 21,610 less Vacancy/Collection losses 1.00% 192 198 204 210 216 EFFECTIVE GROSS INCOME 19,008 19,578 20,166 20,771 21,394 (EGI) ANNUAL OPERATING EXPENSES Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 (Increase in expenses) 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% Property Taxes 2,000 2,020 2,040 2,061 2,081 Insurance 800 808 816 824 832 Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 Gas 0 0 0 0 0 Oil 0 0 0 0 0 Water 0 0 0 0 0 Trash 0 0 0 0 0 Management 6.00% 1,140 1,175 1,210 1,246 1,284 Repairs/Maintenance 2.00% 380 392 403 415 428 Advertising 0 0 0 0 0 Telephone 0 0 0 0 0 Other 65 66 66 67 68 Other 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES 4,386 4,460 4,536 4,613 4,693 Op. Expenses as %age of income 23.07% 22.78% 22.49% 22.21% 21.94% NET OPERATING INCOME 14,622 15,118 15,630 16,157 16,701 (NOI) excluding financing costs CASH FLOW (BEFORE TAXES) Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Net Operating Income 14,622 15,118 15,630 16,157 16,701  -Yrly. P & I 13,133 13,133 13,133 13,133 13,133 CASH FLOW (BEFORE TAXES) 1,489 1,985 2,496 3,024 3,568 TAX BENEFIT Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Net Operating Income 14,622 15,118 15,630 16,157 16,701  -Annual Interest 9,649 9,489 9,321 9,146 8,963  -Annual Depreciation 8,553 8,553 8,553 8,553 8,553 Taxable Income -3,579 -2,923 -2,244 -1,542 -815 x Investor's Tax Bracket 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% TAX BENEFIT 716 585 449 308 163 MORTGAGE PRINCIPAL REDUCTION Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Start of Yr. Balance 216,000 212,515 208,871 205,059 201,071  -End of Yr. Balance 212,515 208,871 205,059 201,071 196,901 TOTAL PRINCIPAL REDUCTION 3,485 3,645 3,812 3,987 4,170 PROPERTY APPRECIATION Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 (Increase) 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Start of Year Value 270,000 278,100 286,443 295,036 303,887 End of Year Value 278,100 286,443 295,036 303,887 313,004 TOTAL ANNUAL APPRECIATION 8,100 8,343 8,593 8,851 9,117 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS RETURN ON INITIAL EQUITY  (Assume Initial Equity = Down Payment + Capital Improvement) Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Cash Flow (Before Taxes) 1,489 1,985 2,496 3,024 3,568 Tax Benefit 716 585 449 308 163 Debt Reduction 3,485 3,645 3,812 3,987 4,170 Appreciation 8,100 8,343 8,593 8,851 9,117 $ RETURN ON INITIAL EQUITY 13,789 14,557 15,351 16,170 17,018 INITIAL EQUITY: Down Payment 54,000 54,000 54,000 54,000 54,000 Capital Improvement 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 TOTAL INITIAL EQUITY 57,000 57,000 57,000 57,000 57,000 % RETURN ON INITIAL EQUITY 24.19% 25.54% 26.93% 28.37% 29.86% RETURN ON TOTAL EQUITY  (Assume Total Equity = Start of Year Value - Start of Year Loan Balance) Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Cash Flow (Before Taxes) 1,489 1,985 2,496 3,024 3,568 Tax Benefit 716 585 449 308 163 Debt Reduction 3,485 3,645 3,812 3,987 4,170 Appreciation 8,100 8,343 8,593 8,851 9,117 $ RETURN ON TOTAL EQUITY 13,789 14,557 15,351 16,170 17,018 TOTAL EQUITY: Beginning of Year Value inc. Cap. Imp. 273,000 281,100 289,443 298,036 306,887 Begining of Year Balance 216,000 212,515 208,871 205,059 201,071 TOTAL EQUITY 57,000 68,585 80,572 92,978 105,816 % RETURN ON TOTAL EQUITY 24.19% 21.23% 19.05% 17.39% 16.08% ESTIMATED SALE PROCEEDS (AFTER EXPENSES & TAXES) Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 ADJUSTED COST BASIS Original Basis 272,700 272,700 272,700 272,700 272,700 + Capital Improvements` 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 + Sales Costs 6.00% 16,686 17,187 17,702 18,233 18,780 - Accum. Depreciation 8,553 17,105 25,658 34,211 42,764 = ADJUSTED COST BASIS 283,833 275,781 267,744 259,722 251,717 True CAPITAL GAIN Sales Price 278,100 286,443 295,036 303,887 313,004 Non adjusted cost 292,386 292,887 293,402 293,933 294,480 True Gain or loss -14,286 -6,444 1,634 9,954 18,524 CAPITAL GAIN for tax purposes Sales Price 278,100 286,443 295,036 303,887 313,004 - Adjusted Cost Basis 283,833 275,781 267,744 259,722 251,717 CAPITAL GAIN (tax purposes) -5,733 10,662 27,292 44,165 61,287 CAPITAL GAIN TAX Capital Gain for tax purposes -5,733 10,662 27,292 44,165 61,287 = Tax on Capital Gain 3,310 6,660 10,046 13,469 EST. NET SALE PROCEEDS (after tax) Sales Price 278,100 286,443 295,036 303,887 313,004 - Sales Costs 16,686 17,187 17,702 18,233 18,780 - Ending Loan Balance 212,515 208,871 205,059 201,071 196,901 = Proceeds Before Taxes 48,899 60,386 72,275 84,583 97,323 - Capital Gain Tax 0 3,310 6,660 10,046 13,469 = EST NET SALE PROCEEDS A/T 48,899 57,076 65,616 74,537 83,853
						74,537

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It seems all the roads to prosperity end up in Phoenix Metropolitan Area these day.

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Payam H. Raouf, Designated Broker

We did it again! Thank you for listening. 

If you back to my last post from July 2018, and even from the start of this blog in 2008, you shall see my predictions about the market trends in Phoenix Metro Area have almost ALL come true!

Here on out, I would focus on the $230,000 to $270,000 inventory in Surprise, El Mirage and Goodyear, SFR 2000 and newer, 1700 plus sq ft , 3 plus bedrooms, 2 plus baths, specific subdivisions and builders. The right ones rent for $1,450 to $1,650.

There are other opportunities out there if you can get to them first. You can also see what you can find in the $350,000 range in Norterra, N Phoenix and N Peoria. They are out there, you just need to move on them quickly.

They are coming by thousands from everywhere, California, Chicago, Ohio, New York, Silicon Valley, New Mexico; It seems all the roads to prosperity end up in Phoenix Metropolitan Area these day. Highways to nowhere have shopping malls and grocery stores bigger than your wildest imagination. There is an opportunity for every size and taste.  Tall, grande, and venti, coffee, ice tea, mocha, frappuccino and banana smoothies for everyone.

You have not missed the boat yet! There are stops at every corner, you just need to be at the head of the line. There is enough to go around for everyone, or is there?

It’s just the way it is. Talk to a professional REALTOR® that specializes in the rental management and has a good pulse on the market as it is shifting fast. This is not a case of going to your  primary care physician first, you need a specialist to help you through the line and onto the helm.

We are on top the market almost 24/7 with no exception. If you are considering investing in residential real estate in Phoenix Metro Area or would like us to team up with you managing your rental property(ies)  Please contact us. My staff and I would be delighted to assist you. Thank you. 

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 HERE THEY COME!
Arizona becomes 1st to match out-of-state work licenses.PHOENIX — Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey signed legislation Wednesdaymaking the state the first in the nation toautomatically grant occupational licenses to anyone who movesthere with an unblemished credential from another state.Apr 10, 2019

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What More Is Possible? Arizona Real Estate Semi-Annual Market Report

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By: Payam Raouf
Owner/Investor/Designated Broker
7/4/18

We are halfway through the year and it’s time again to give you an update.  Good news if you are the seller and better news if you are the buyer!

Prices seem to be continuing to go up. If you have to sell, sell. Otherwise, keep renting it. We have less than 2 to 3 months of inventory on mls. No matter how fast builders continue to build, they cannot build fast enough to keep up with the demand.  I just checked on mls there is only 12973 single family homes active on the market and 8885 under contract as of 3:24 pm. Do the math. There is not even 2 months of inventory left!!!!

More people moved to Maricopa County than any other county in the country last year, according to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released March 2018.

Population growth in Arizona is forecasted to be 120,000 new people from domestic and international locations in 2018. If this growth accelerates, we will be expecting over 1.5 to 2 million more people moving to Arizona in the next 10 years. Are you surprised?

Phoenix has seen the job market increase by 3.2% over the last year. Future job growth over the next ten years is predicted to be 40.8%, which is higher than the US average of 38.0%.

Greater Phoenix’s tech sector is experiencing rapid growth, with more and more tech companies locating to the Valley like never before and others being launched here seemingly every week. In the 1980s and '90s, most of the tech jobs in metro Phoenix focused on back office and customer-care centers for companies with headquarters elsewhere. Now, places like Phoenix, Tempe and Scottsdale are buzzing with entrepreneurs and new companies in the tech space.

“We’re beginning to gain a reputation that there’s a real tech community here,” according to Steven G. Zylstra, president and CEO of the Arizona Technology Council.

Our rental inventory mostly consists of Single Family Detached Homes in the $300,000 price range with rents averaging $1850 per month. We cater mostly to upper management of the companies relocating to Phoenix Metro Area. There definitely is a shortage in this niche marketplace.

We see desirable homes suited for our niche market go up to $350,000 to $400,000 soon with rents averaging $2100-$2500 per month. Where else can you get such a return on your investment without risking losing it all? That is not even taking into consideration the historical average real estate appreciation of 6% year over year. In only 10 years, you literally could double your initial investment.  

With that in mind, we stay away from homes under $280,000 for now unless it is a great deal. It’s a crowded market with all the fha home buyers.

Our tenants focus on quality of life, good schools and desirable neighborhoods. There are pockets within subdivisions in certain locations of cities we choose to buy that not only offers just that but also have greater potential for future growth.

What is your investment strategy? Are you looking for a steady stream of income? Is someone else being in control of your financial destiny a concern? Or do you prefer to totally be  in charge?

Give me a call. Let’s see what else is possible. It's that easy. We do the rest.

Payam Raouf, 623-435-6633 Ext: 111

ARIZONA / PHOENIX METRO; 2018-2020 REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKET PREDICTIONS

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By: Payam H. Raouf
Owner/Investor/Designated Broker

When you have your team working hand in hand running your business is when you know you are ready to take on more clients.

Property Management is not only collecting rent and paying you; It is a big responsibility both on yours and our part. It’s a financial marriage that, in exchange of a fee, one makes a promise that they will take mental ownership of your property while it is under their management.

It takes years to build a team that has the credentials, knowledge, and training it takes to earn your business.

Technology is a big plus if you know how to best utilize it to cut cost and mange time more efficiently, yet be personal, accurate and responsive. Target marketing adds to your bottom line by reducing your vacancy loses. Tenant placement is more than credit scores and rental and employment verification; It is the right shoe that fits you. Sometimes it is the first, sometimes the last, but either way it’s worth waiting for. Penalties are only due when the laws are broken. Paying detail attention to the changes in laws, rules and regulations whether it is national, state, county or city or at the community level are enough to keep you on your toes. All monies including rents, security deposits , maintenance reserves held by the broker should be accounted for 24/7 at the tip of your finger as if you were logging into your own bank account. 

You know your tenants respect you when they pay rent on time and call you to tell you they got married, had a baby, or are going through hardship in spite of receiving a notice of non-payment.

When you help them make their rental house their home, that’s when the magic happens and everybody wins. A well maintained property is cash in the bank. 

A wise investor picks the right business partner; one that helps them meet their financial objectives with the least amount of worry.

Rental Market Condition in Phoenix Metro:

We have hit a wall! Regardless of substantial rent increase, it’s getting cheaper to rent than to buy and renters are sitting it out!

In 2017 there were three kinds of investors selling: 1. The owners that had their nose barely above water. 2. The ones who bought dirt cheap in 2010 and 2011 and took some money off the table. 3. Canadians who took advantage of the currency exchange in their favor.

Who was buying? A lot of renters and first time home buyers dominated the market in 2017.  There were a lot of down payment assistance programs and sellers contributing up to 3%  towards buyer’s closing costs which fumed the buying frenzy and prices shot straight up.   

Bam! We have hit a ceiling. Buyers are having second thoughts right now: Should they stay put or take the plunge? Leases are renewed for one or some even two years as the result. It is the year of saving for a bigger down payment to avoid paying the private mortgage insurance (PMI). For FHA home buyers with only 3% down, the PMI of ½ or 1% of the loan amount is the deal breaker. Banks are rolling out programs to put them over this hurdle. This year we are going to be kind of flat. Many industry sources predict 3% growth rate up to the 4th quarter of 2018 but by early 2019, watch out! Sellers' market is going to roar back taking prices to new highs continued through mid 2020. 

That should be music to investor’s ears, loading up on good merchandise while it lasts. Looking to throw out some low ball offers? Timing is just right. Now listen:

The dead spot of the market is the $230,000 to $260,000 price range.

Total out of pocket cost of home ownership, PITI, PMI, and HOA for homes between $190,000 to $220,000 is around $1,350 to $1,500 per month. That is just about the same as what they would pay for rent for similar homes. 

$230,000 to $260000 price range, payment is about $1600 to $1750. You can rent those for $1550 to $1600 and someone else pays for major repairs. These are nicer homes of course but its out of their reach. homes in this price range are kind of suppressed now but not for too lone. If you come across one, make an offer! 

I would probably hop over the $260,000 to $275,000 range unless it is an opportunity you cannot pass on!

The $295,000 to $335,000 is the sweet spot right now as long term investments. That’s where the money talks and there is less competition. More desirable areas, loaded homes, better managed cities and communities, top notch school, sounds like we are back to the location, location, location. Does it not? Some pockets in North Phoenix, N Peoria, N Glendale, Chandler, Gilbert to name a few.

So who is buying investment properties? Lots of cash buyers! New Money, Old Money, IRA conversions money, 1031 exchange money etc. Real estate is a tangible asset. Plus you have full control over it yourself as oppose to a fund manager. With DOW over 25000, Bitcoin over $15000 just in 12 month, taking some chips off the table and investing it in real estate maybe a good option. 

Next time you are heading over to Phoenix by plane take a look around you. A) Isn’t the plane full? This is not only a winter destination; It is a place for doing lots of business. Phoenix Metro was sitting somewhere close to 4.5 Million people according to Google Data in 2015. It has grown by a good 100,000 plus since and the pace is accelerating. At the current growth rate, it should reach 10,000,000 people by 2035-2045. B) Is there enough water to support this tremendous growth? Water is never enough!  Even if they keep some of their large farming operations intact, there is more water under this land than it is above it. The more homes, the more the parks, greenbelts and landscaped homes are going to make the hot summer a thing of the past. C) Most infrastructures are in place. National Big Box Distribution Centers open up on weekly basis somewhere in the Valley. Unemployment is averaging 3.25% and in some towns as low as 2.7 %. Both High and Low tech workers are needed. Is the person sitting next to you coming to Phoenix for business? Maybe even planning to buy a house. One out of 3 chances they are. We're building highways to nowhere!? Enough said.

Everywhere you look, they are turning dirt to built homes.

If you invest $300,000 in the right real estate opportunity in Phoenix Metro, you could walk away with $600,000 NET in your pocket in 10 years!!! There are similar opportunities for investors with only 30% down payment!

Please click on this link and join Arizona Real Estate Investments and Management Group on Meetup and let me show you how.

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