Monday, December 25, 2017

ARIZONA / PHOENIX METRO; 2018-2020 REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKET PREDICTIONS



Call For a Free Property Management Quote:

 (888) 777 6664


A+ rating with BBB / Honor Roll List with ADRE
By: Payam H. Raouf
Owner/Investor/Designated Broker


When you have your team working hand in hand running your business is when you know you are ready to take on more clients.

Property Management is not only collecting rent and paying you; It is a big responsibility both on yours and our part. It’s a financial marriage that, in exchange of a fee, one makes a promise that they will take mental ownership of your property while it is under their management.

It takes years to build a team that has the credentials, knowledge, and training it takes to earn your business.

Technology is a big plus if you know how to best utilize it to cut cost and mange time more efficiently, yet be personal, accurate and responsive. Target marketing adds to your bottom line by reducing your vacancy loses. Tenant placement is more than credit scores and rental and employment verification; It is the right shoe that fits you. Sometimes it is the first, sometimes the last, but either way it’s worth waiting for. Penalties are only due when the laws are broken. Paying detail attention to the changes in laws, rules and regulations whether it is national, state, county or city or at the community level are enough to keep you on your toes. All monies including rents, security deposits , maintenance reserves held by the broker should be accounted for 24/7 at the tip of your finger as if you were logging into your own bank account. 

You know your tenants respect you when they pay rent on time and call you to tell you they got married, had a baby, or are going through hardship in spite of receiving a notice of non-payment.

When you help them make their rental house their home, that’s when the magic happens and everybody wins. A well maintained property is cash in the bank. 

A wise investor picks the right business partner; one that helps them meet their financial objectives with the least amount of worry.

Rental Market Condition in Phoenix Metro:

We have hit a wall! Regardless of substantial rent increase, it’s getting cheaper to rent than to buy and renters are sitting it out!

In 2017 there were three kinds of investors selling: 1. The owners that had their nose barely above water. 2. The ones who bought dirt cheap in 2010 and 2011 and took some money off the table. 3. Canadians who took advantage of the currency exchange in their favor.

Who was buying? A lot of renters and first time home buyers dominated the market in 2017.  There were a lot of down payment assistance programs and sellers contributing up to 3%  towards buyer’s closing costs which fumed the buying frenzy and prices shot straight up.   

Bam! We have hit a ceiling. Buyers are having second thoughts right now: Should they stay put or take the plunge? Leases are renewed for one or some even two years as the result. It is the year of saving for a bigger down payment to avoid paying the private mortgage insurance (PMI). For FHA home buyers with only 3% down, the PMI of ½ or 1% of the loan amount is the deal breaker. Banks are rolling out programs to put them over this hurdle. This year we are going to be kind of flat. Many industry sources predict 3% growth rate up to the 4th quarter of 2018 but by early 2019, watch out! Sellers' market is going to roar back taking prices to new highs continued through mid 2020. 

That should be music to investor’s ears, loading up on good merchandise while it lasts. Looking to throw out some low ball offers? Timing is just right. Now listen:

The dead spot of the market is the $230,000 to $260,000 price range.

Total out of pocket cost of home ownership, PITI, PMI, and HOA for homes between $190,000 to $220,000 is around $1,350 to $1,500 per month. That is just about the same as what they would pay for rent for similar homes. 

$230,000 to $260000 price range, payment is about $1600 to $1750. You can rent those for $1550 to $1600 and someone else pays for major repairs. These are nicer homes of course but its out of their reach. homes in this price range are kind of suppressed now but not for too lone. If you come across one, make an offer! 

I would probably hop over the $260,000 to $275,000 range unless it is an opportunity you cannot pass on!

The $295,000 to $335,000 is the sweet spot right now as long term investments. That’s where the money talks and there is less competition. More desirable areas, loaded homes, better managed cities and communities, top notch school, sounds like we are back to the location, location, location. Does it not? Some pockets in North Phoenix, N Peoria, N Glendale, Chandler, Gilbert to name a few.

So who is buying investment properties? Lots of cash buyers! New Money, Old Money, IRA conversions money, 1031 exchange money etc. Real estate is a tangible asset. Plus you have full control over it yourself as oppose to a fund manager. With DOW over 25000, Bitcoin over $15000 just in 12 month, taking some chips off the table and investing it in real estate maybe a good option. 

Next time you are heading over to Phoenix by plane take a look around you. A) Isn’t the plane full? This is not only a winter destination; It is a place for doing lots of business. Phoenix Metro was sitting somewhere close to 4.5 Million people according to Google Data in 2015. It has grown by a good 100,000 plus since and the pace is accelerating. At the current growth rate, it should reach 10,000,000 people by 2035-2045. B) Is there enough water to support this tremendous growth? Water is never enough!  Even if they keep some of their large farming operations intact, there is more water under this land than it is above it. The more homes, the more the parks, greenbelts and landscaped homes are going to make the hot summer a thing of the past. C) Most infrastructures are in place. National Big Box Distribution Centers open up on weekly basis somewhere in the Valley. Unemployment is averaging 3.25% and in some towns as low as 2.7 %. Both High and Low tech workers are needed. Is the person sitting next to you coming to Phoenix for business? Maybe even planning to buy a house. One out of 3 chances they are. We're building highways to nowhere!? Enough said.

Everywhere you look, they are turning dirt to built homes.

If you invest $300,000 in the right real estate opportunity in Phoenix Metro, you could walk away with $600,000 NET in your pocket in 10 years!!! There are similar opportunities for investors with only 30% down payment!

Please click on this link and join Arizona Real Estate Investments and Management Group on Meetup and let me show you how.




Call For a Free Property Management Quote:

 (888) 777 6664



A+ rating with BBB / Honor Roll List with ADRE

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